Championship Sunday has it all.
Perennial powerhouses face off in the ACC, David battles Goliath in the Big 10, and bitter in-state rivals square off in the Sun Belt.
With conference titles and national tournament seating on the line, Sunday's matches offer mouth-watering stakes and storylines.
We will preview those 3 conference championships with a data-driven analysis of their regular season matchup. By digging into the data and comparing it to each team's season averages, we can get a sense of how the last match played out and what we're likely to see on Sunday.
The ACC final gives us a battle of the Carolinas.
You'll recall the number two seed, Clemson, started the year as the nation's top-rated program. The defending NCAA D1 champions will look to add to the trophy cabinet in the ACC tournament, but they have to overcome another one of the nation's premier programs in Bobby Muuss’ Wake Forest.
Their first match-up was dominated by Mike Noonan's Tigers.
Don't let the 1-0 scoreline fool you. The xG battle was 3.53 to 1.26 In Clemson's favor. Looking at both the xG timeline and each team’s short map, Clemson consistently found themselves in prime shooting positions whereas Wake Forest had an average shot distance of 20.99 yards. Clemson's 22 shots exceeded their season average of 15.79, whereas Wake’s 14 shots fell four short of their season average.
In their first matchup, Clemson recorded 29 penalty area entries to Wake Forest’s 20. Of Clemson’s 29 entries, 16 came through runs into the box. Wake Forest managed just three.
Some of this is stylistic preference. Wake has a highly identifiable style of play that stresses the importance of breaking down the opposition with their passing and combination play. Clemson's approach is more balanced and in this game, the progressive carries were on.
Compare the two progressive carry maps and you'll find that Clemson had far more success in the final third, as well as that decided edge in carrying the ball into the box. Additionally, Wake Forest found it difficult to access the box and Zone 14 in addition to their limited success in the final third.
Surely one of the highlights of championship Sunday, Clemson and Wake Forest give us two perennial powerhouses in the Massey ranking’s top conference.
If there is a Cinderella story on Championship Sunday, it's the Michigan Wolverines, the number seven seed in the Big 10. As if beating Indiana and UCLA wasn't a big enough challenge, Chaka Daley’s Side must beat their arch-nemesis, Brian Maisonneuve’s #1 ranked Ohio State.
The Buckeyes ran away with their regular season match against Michigan, claiming a decisive 6-3 victory with a massive 3.71 to 0.77 edge in xG.
One of the factors in this game was how two early goals forced Michigan to take a greater initiative in possession, an approach that deviates from their season averages. They out-possessed Ohio State by 4%, which was an oddity in itself given that Ohio State averages 55.54% possession per game.
Starting in a 5-3-2 to offset Ohio State's quality and tendency for the great share of the ball, Michigan's passing network, shown below, gives us a sense of how stretched this game was, as well as their issues playing through Ohio State’s 4-4-2.
Compare Michigan's passing network to Ohio State’s and there's certainly greater structure to the top seed’s positional balance.
First and foremost, Michigan needs a better start to this game. They can't afford to fall behind early and chase the game. It was an atypical performance for Michigan in many ways. Their 73 high losses far exceeded their season average of 49.41. That position in the final third saw them send 21 crosses, significantly higher than their season average of 13.35. In fact, Ohio State and Michigan virtually flipped their crossing data in this match compared to their season average.
Finally, Michigan has to clean up their final third entries. Their 51.85% success rate led to those high turnovers and forced a PDA of 7.86, much higher than their season average of 11.8. Ohio State had success by using those early goals to make Michigan take a greater initiative and attack, which ultimately hurt them.
This one is Ohio State’s game to lose, but they certainly can’t take Michigan lightly. Expect a tighter match than we saw in conference play.
Arguably the most entertaining match of the weekend is the Mountain State Derby featuring #1 West Virginia against #2 Marshall. Always a close battle, the Sun Belt rivals have spent all season in and around the top ten in the nation. With just 12 days between their regular season meeting and the Sun Belt championship game, familiarity reaches new heights.
There's very little separating the two programs’ data from the 2024 campaign, but it is noteworthy that the recent matchup 0-0 matchup saw Marshall leave with a 1.24 to 0.45 xG advantage. The Thundering Herd hit their season average of 12 shots while holding WVU to just eight.
On the season, Dan Stratford's team has averaged 60.18 percent possession. Against Chris Grassie’s Marshall, that match total dropped to 36.61%. Their long pass share was 19%, nearly double their season average of 9.45. Defensively, WVU’s PPDA was 21.94, well off their season mark of 8.07.
That is perhaps telling of what we can expect in the championship game. Marshall will be Marshall. No doubt about it.
The key for West Virginia is how they adapt to create better opportunities with less of the ball. That will also require better individual performances from their key players, especially Sergio Ors Navarro and Marcus Caldeira.
For Marshall, Lineker Rodrigues dos Santos has to provide the edge in the box. He owns a 28.5% share of Marshall’s goals with 10 on the season and an additional three assists. He has more than double the goals of the next highest scorers, Marco Silva and Rai Pinto.
Expect a fascinating final And a worthwhile study on the adaptations the two coaches make from one game to the next.
Three Champions, Three Stories
Will the highly defined game models of Wake Forest and Marshall prevail or will the more balanced approaches of Clemson and West Virginia lead to another trophy in the cabinet? Can David topple Goliath? How will the two rivalry matches play out in terms of physicality and discipline?
New chapters will be written this Sunday. For each team, it is but one chapter in a saga that ultimately ends with a national championship.
Before the penultimate chapter can be written, a conference title is there for the taking.
For three of these teams, their story will include a conference title.